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Sunday 28 July 2019

3 Forex Trading Strategies For Serious Traders That Work!

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forex trading strategies tutorial coverIf you’ve found yourself on this page – I am going to assume you’re very passionate about Forex trading and want to go places with it.
The sad truth is that there are a lot of potato strategies getting cooked up in bedrooms, and passed around on forums, branded the holy grail.
Everyone’s time is precious! There is nothing worse than wasting a lot of your time on a trading system that leads you down the wrong rabbit hole.
Time is a commodity that is non-refundable.
Don’t get me wrong – there is some golden information out there, but you need to have a bit of industry experience under your belt to be able to ‘filter’ what’s worth investing energy into.
The crazy amount of foreign exchange information that poor in when you do a google search can be an overwhelming, and dilute your ability to find reliable trading strategies to get you going.
You might already be trading Forex, but looking for simpler Forex trading strategies to supplement your current regime.
In this tutorial, I am going to share 3 strategies with you which are:
  • Forex Trading Indicator free, only need clean price charts
  • Require no ‘extra’ tools, just your charting software
  • Have a simple & effective price action approach
  • Reveal straight-froward, uncomplicated trade signals you can spot easily
When Forex strategies have these kinds of properties, they are easy to stick with for the long run (like a well designed diet).
Let’s put things into gear, and begin…

Forex Trading Strategies Using ‘Indecision Doji’ Candles As Breakout Trading Setups

This is one of the most overlooked and underestimated Forex trading strategies!
There are many definitions for a Doji candle – you can probably find over 10 variants! I am going to stick with the generic definition here, which I think works best.
The ‘indecision’ Doji‘ is the one I trade – it’s a very simple to understand signal, and extremely easy to spot on the charts too.
An indecision Doji candle has a small centered body, with wicks protruding out both ends of the body.
doji candle anatomy
As the title suggests, this candlestick pattern represents indecision. The market is communicating to you that it tried to move higher, and it tried to move lower, but ultimately closed off back around the opening price.
The idea is to catch the breakout of the indecision. In general, we aim to catch bullish runs as price breaks the high, or bearish moves as the market breaks the low of the Doji.
doji forex trading strategy basics
Above: The basic way to trade these is to wait for a breakout from the ‘indecision’ the candle represents. We do this by catching price as it breaks above (buy), or below the candle range (sell).
There are also some more advanced tactics where we wait for a break of one end of the Doji, but only take action if it fakes out, reverses, and breaks the other end instead.
Doji candles print very frequently, and can be seen across a few time frames. Very easy also to spot with your eye!
doji candles all over the chart
Above: Yep, Doji candles form often, across all time frames.
One important thing to remember is that the more ‘data’ that you have packed into a candlestick pattern, the more reliable it will be.
Meaning: A Doji on the Daily time frame has magnitudes more value than a Doji on the 5 minute time frame – which is true for any price action Forex trading strategy.
In my crazy price action Forex tips article – I talk about how traders screw themselves over constantly by trading candlestick signals in isolation and give away my approach to a candlestick signal trading strategy decision.
So, the first lesson is: don’t trade every single Doji you see!
What is the difference between a good and a bad Doji signal?
We want to target them at points on the chart which have high technical value. Locations where you know the market has a ‘decision’ to make.
Looking for key locations like:
  • Proven support and resistance levels
  • Swing levels within a trend
  • Trend line structures
  • Any point on the chart your technical analysis tells you the market should ‘break or bounce’
Check out this Doji setup below…
doji candle setup on weekly support
Above: The indecision signal formed on a weekly support level – where we highly anticipate a ‘bounce’.
With that logic in mind – we only look for bullish breakouts
doji candle weekly support breakout strategy result
Above: As expected, a ‘bounce’ occurred off the major level, and price broke above the indecision high – kicking in our bullish trade order.
It’s all about using your technical analysis to find key areas where you know the price action has a ‘break or bounce’ decision to make. Wait for an Indecision Doji to form, then trade the expected outcome (usually bounces).
indecision doji trading strategy on resistance
Above: With simple technical analysis – we easily spot a clear resistance level on the chart.
An indecision Doji candlestick pattern forms, so we look for bearish follow through off resistance (trading the bounce), and use the break of the Doji low as a trade trigger.
doji candle successful breakout trade
Above: The market follows through with the indecision breakout, and explodes downwards.
We can also use them in trending conditions to catch trend continuation.
The best place to target Dojis in a trend is at swing levels (old support turned new resistance, or reverse of that).
doji in a trend strategy
Above: In a trending environment – look for indecision Dojis that form at swing levels. Target breaks in the direction of the trend.
doji trend strategy after result
Above: A nice result after trend momentum picked up via the swing point, broke the Doji high to trigger the trade, and continued to trend higher for days.
It is as simple as it is critical, that you perform good technical analysis first – then you can line up your Doji breakout idea to see if it fits.
good vs bad indecision signals
Above: A glance at what separates a good indecision breakout opportunity from a bad one.
Remember, Dojis form very regularly – it’s your job to use your basic technical analysis to filter the bad from the good.
If you don’t have good chart reading skills, and can’t pick up the basic structure or context of the market – you might run into frequent trouble trying to trade these candlestick patterns…
When you apply this Forex strategy – just remember you will see a lot of Dojis printed, but only a small selection of them will be good trading opportunities.
Checkpoint
Dojis are a very common candlestick pattern. The indecision Doji is the one I use as a breakout signal.
Some key points to remember
  • Do your technical analysis first before you consider the Doji as a trade opportunity. In most cases, simple price action analysis will rule it out as a viable trade
  • Match them up with important technical points on the chart, where you know the market has an important decision to make – then plan to trade the ‘break or bounce’ via the Doji breakout
  • Don’t be tempted to trade Dojis on low time frames – the less data in the candlestick, the less reliable the pattern.

The Flag Pattern – A Trend Continuation Strategy

In my opinion, flag breakouts are one of, if not the best Forex trading strategy for trending markets.
Because of the simple nature – flag breakouts are another overlooked gem, usually because Forex traders are always chasing the more complicated methodologies!
Like always, flag breaks work well on higher time frames – but I’ve even seen them work well on charts like 1 hour time frame!
Here is my ‘to the point’ breakdown of what flag patterns are, and how I trade them:
  1. A trending structure must be in place.
  2. A counter sloped, trend line develops against the existing dominant trend (the flag line)
  3. The flag line breaks in the direction of the trend
  4. Trade the ‘breakout candle’
Let’s look at an example.
bullish flag strategy setup on daily chart
Above: This is my text-book scenario for a bullish flag breakout. A strong trend in place, then shorter frequency lower highs develop against the trend – creating a counter-trend, trend-line.
We’re now waiting for the flag line to break, which signals trend continuation.
bullish flag breakout signal
Above: A breakout signal! A bullish candle closes above the flag structure. We’re looking for a convincing close here, not a candle with a large upper wick.
Once we have the breakout candle, that’s our cue to get long. There are a few different entry, stop loss, and money management combination you can apply here.
I can’t cover them all here, I’ve dedicated a few modules to these subjects in our War Room Forex course.
The basic way is to buy/sell the breakout candle event (after it closes), and place a stop loss below the breakout candle.
If the breakout candle is really large, then other strategies need to be deployed to tighten the stop.
bullish flag breakout success
Above: The follow through move after a breakout candle busted the flag structure.
Hopefully you can see the value in this as a trend continuation strategy.
When the market is trending, these flags are actually forming all the time, right under your nose. If you haven’t been looking for them, then you’ve probably been overlooking many opportunities.
If you’re into the lower time frames (like 1 hour), open up your charts and check out what you’ve been missing…
flag breakout candle events on 1 hour
Above: Even on a 1 hour chart, flag structures are actually worth looking out for.
You can see above during a strong trend, even the 1 hour chart produced the goods. The 1 hour chart is normally a difficult chart to apply swing trading strategies to, but flag breaks within trends just work so nicely.
examples of bearish flag breakouts on a 4 hour chart
Above: The power of catching flag breakouts within a trending environment. They key is to make sure the broader market is trending before you consider looking for flag trade opportunities.
You do see flags form within consolidation or in ranging cycles, but they just don’t offer the reliability, or reward potential. That’s why I only use them as a trend continuation trading strategy.
Checkpoint
Flag structures are counter directional trend lines that form against an existing trending structure. The event we’re looking for is a breakout candle. Once a breakout candle signals trend continuation by closing on the other side of the flag – that’s our cue to pull the trigger on a trade in the dominant trend direction. Flag trades surprisingly work well on lower time frames, as well as higher swing trading time frames.

The Rejection Candlestick Reversal Trading Strategy

The rejection candle is one of my most utilized candlestick pattern signals.
The anatomy and concept is similar to the classic ‘Pin Bar’ – which is the most engaged topic of interest in all the price action discussions, and communities online.
Rejection candles are a candlestick pattern that communicates denial of higher or lower prices. The market tries to move to an area, but it ‘rejected’ by the market.
This denial leaves a very distinct feature in the anatomy of the candlestick – a long lower or upper wick.
The better quality rejection candles pack thicker candle bodies (closing in the direction of the rejection).
rejection candle anatomy
Above: Simple anatomy diagram, comparing the classic pin bar to the more authoritative rejection candle pattern that I use.
Rejection candles have a thicker body. The ‘bounce’ from the rejection causes the closing price to be higher or lower than the open price.
The thicker body demonstrates more strength and authority as a reversal signal in the rejection candle anatomy.
What’s the #1 quality factor for rejection candles?
I am going to stay something stupidly simple here – the key is to match them up with technical areas on your chart, where you expect price to reverse.
Such a simple concept that many traders don’t use! Most Forex traders out there will trade any and every rejection candle (or pin bar), that pops up on their chart.
I like to target these guys at:
  • Weekly support or resistance, the major turning points (counter-trend opportunities)
  • Swing points within a trend (trend continuation opportunities)
  • Range tops and bottoms
  • Very over extended prices (mean reversion opportunities)
Check out the bearish rejection setup below…
rejection candle at resistance
Above: A nice bearish rejection candle forming at a resistance level. Remember, rejection candles are a reversal signal – and strong resistance levels are an expected turning point. The signal matches the context!
rejection candle after result
Above: A very nice follow through move to the down side, after the bearish rejection sell signal printed.
Don’t fall into the trap of ‘trading every candlestick pattern’, just because they’re there. Get into the habit of doing technical analysis first, then build that analysis to the candlestick trade idea, for synergy and quality control.
bullish rejection trade signal at new support
Above: Simple technical analysis tells us this level is likely to cause the market to bounce, as old resistance holds as new support.
The bullish rejection is printed as a result of a bounce (at least the beginnings of one) – therefor it fits well with our technical analysis, and has a lot of synergy with what’s going with the chart.
support holding and bullish price action signal strategy pays
Above: The technical analysis and the rejection signal both play out as expected, and become a profitable trade idea.
It’s just as simple as lining up the rejection candle (a reversal signal), which those likely reversal points on your chart.
Try to avoid trading rejection candles when there is a lot of congestion to the left.
bad rejection signal examples
Above: An example of not lining up technical analysis, context, or reversal points with your rejection candle signals.
These are dud signals because they hardly met any of the analytical quality control points we’ve talked about in this tutorial.
If you see heavy congestion to the left, and the rejection candle formed in the middle of it all – then that’s a red flag.
Also if you plan to go against the trend (which can be profitable), you better line up strong rejection candles with major reversal points (tip: get these from weekly time frame)
When you look back through your charts to evaluate these signals, take note: you will find them everywhere!
Be careful of confirmation bias – which means you only ‘see’ the profitable signals located at the tops and bottoms of moves in history, but you over look the signals in-between, which are the ones you would have likely been screwed over ‘in the trading moment’.
Rejection candles & pin bars are a fairly straight forward signal, but they are not the holy grail ATM machine that prints out everlasting money (which is how I’ve seen them promoted). They are only lucrative when combined with good technical, and price action analysis.

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Note:


Risk Disclaimer

All information is for educational purposes only. Nothing should be considered as a buy or sell recommendation. The risk of loss in trading stocks, commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if trading is appropriate. When trading stock, futures or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This email may is a paid advertisement. It could be for a product or service that is not offered, recommended or endorsed by Stock Alphabets and neither the company nor its affiliates bear responsibility or control over the content of the advertisement and the product or service offered. Proceed at your own risk.
The information and material contained in these pages and the terms, conditions, and descriptions that appear are subject to change without prior notice. Investments in equity shares, debentures etc, are not obligations of or guaranteed by the Stock Alphabets, and are subject to investment risks.

Thursday 18 July 2019

10 Things You Can Learn From The World’s Best Traders

- 6 comments

Today’s lesson is a virtual treasure trove of wisdom and insight from some of the best trading minds of all time. We are going to go on a journey of discovery and learn a little about some of the best traders ever and dissect some of their famous quotes to see what we can learn and how it applies to our own trading.
The way to learn anything is to learn from the greats, have mentors, teachers, study and read; you must make a concerted effort to absorb as much knowledge from the best in your field as possible, for that is truly the fastest way to success, be it in trading or any other field.
Below, you will find a brief introduction to 10 of the best traders of all time, followed by an inspiring quote from them and how I view that quote and apply it to my own trading principles. Hopefully, after reading today’s lesson you will be able to apply this wisdom to your own trading and start improving your market performance as a result…

George Soros

George Soros gained international notoriety when, in September of 1992, he invested $10 billion on a single currency trade when he shorted the British pound. He turned out to be right, and in a single day the trade generated a profit of $1 billion – ultimately, it was reported that his profit on the transaction almost reached $2 billion. As a result, he is famously known as the “the man who broke the Bank of England.”
Soros went off on his own in 1973, founding the hedge fund company of Soros Fund Management, which eventually evolved into the well-known and respected Quantum Fund. For almost two decades, he ran this aggressive and successful hedge fund, reportedly racking up returns in excess of 30% per year and, on two occasions, posting annual returns of more than 100%.
Here is a famous quote from Mr. Soros:
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”

Jesse Livermore

Livermore, who is the author of “How to Trade in Stocks”(1940), was one of the greatest traders of all time. At his peak in 1929, Jesse Livermore was worth $100 million, which in today’s dollars roughly equates to $1.5-13 billion, depending on the index used. He is most famous, perhaps, for selling short U.S. stocks before they crashed in 1929, swelling his bank account to $100 million.
Here is a famous quote from Jesse Livermore:
“Play the market only when all factors are in your favor. No person can play the market all the time and win. There are times when you should be completely out of the market, for emotional as well as economic reasons.”
The above quote by Jesse Livermore is one of my favorites. I am all about keeping a low-frequency trading approach and trading like a sniper not a machine gunner which is also what Livermore is saying here. Playing the market when all factors are you in favor means, as with other quotes in this lesson (seeing a theme here?) trading with confluence. He says you should be out of the market at times for emotional as well as economic reasons. Meaning, for your trading account’s sake and your mindset’s sake, you should not be in the market all the time. In fact, most of the time you should be out of the market, which is a cornerstone of my trading philosophy.

Ed Seykota

Trading as a trend follower, Ed Seykota turned $5,000 into $15,000,000 over a 12-year time period in his model account – an actual client account. In the early 1970s, Seykota was hired as an analyst by a major brokerage firm. He conceived and developed the first commercial computerized trading system for managing clients’ money in the futures markets 
Here is quote from Ed Seykota from The Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager:
“Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”. I am primarily a trend trader with touches of hunches based on about twenty years of experience. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary components of my trading. Way down in a very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.”

John Paulson

Paulson became world-famous in 2007 by shorting the US housing market, as he foresaw the subprime mortgage crisis and bet against mortgage backed securities by investing in credit default swaps. Sometimes referred to as the greatest trade in history, Paulson’s firm made a fortune and he earned over $4 billion personally on this trade alone.
Here is a great quote from John Paulson:
Many investors make the mistake of buying high and selling low while the exact opposite is the right strategy.”
What he means here, is that most investors and traders will tend to buy when a market is high, typically because that’s when it looks and feels good to buy. However, when a market has already moved up a lot, it’s typically ready to pullback, which is why I like to trade on market pull backs in most cases. The inverse is true for shorting; when a market has sold-off big time, you usually don’t want to sell, or you’ll end up selling the bottom, so to speak. You want to wait for a bounce in price, back to a resistance or value area, then watch for a price action sell signal there to rejoin the trend after a pull back.

Paul Tudor Jones

Paul Tudor Jones shorting of Black Monday was one of the most famous trades ever. Paul Tudor Jones correctly predicted on his documentary in 1986 based on chart patterns that the market was on the path to a crash of epic proportions. He profited handsomely from the Black Monday crash in the fall of 1987, the largest single-day U.S. stock market decline (by percentage) ever. Jones reportedly tripled his money by shorting futures, making as much as $100 million on that trade as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22 percent. An amazing trade to walk away from with a fortune when so many others were ruined in the aftermath. He played it to perfection. His funds had great consistent returns for decades.
Here is a favorite quote of mine from Paul Tudor Jones featured in the Market Wizards:
“That was when I first decided I had to learn discipline and money management. It was a cathartic experience for me, in the sense that I went to the edge, questioned my very ability as a trader, and decided that I was not going to quit. I was determined to come back and fight. I decided that I was going to become very disciplined and businesslike about my trading.”
What Jones is saying here, is that there will be a time when every trader makes a huge mistake regarding money management, and they must take a cold, hard look at themselves and decide what to do next. Will you continue to bleed money from your account by continuing to make poor money management decisions? Or, will you finally get disciplined and “businesslike” in your trading? In trading, money management is literally what determines your fate, so you need to focus on it early-on if you want to have any chance of success.

Richard Dennis

Richard J. Dennis, a commodities speculator once known as the “Prince of the Pit,” was born in Chicago, in January, 1949. In the early 1970s, he borrowed $1,600 and reportedly made $200 million in about ten years. Dennis and his friend William Eckhardt, are most famous for starting the Turtle Traders, which was a group of 21 average people to whom they taught their rules to and proved that anyone, given the right training, could trade successfully. 
Here is a good quote from Richard Dennis:
“I’ve certainly done it – that is, made counter-trend initiations. However, as a rule of thumb, I don’t think you should do it.”
Richard Dennis was famously a very successful trend trader and in the above quote he is stating his feelings on trading counter trend. Interestingly, this is pretty much how I feel about trading counter-trend; sometimes it’s warranted, but most of the time it’s not, and it takes a skilled trader to be able to trade counter-trend successfully. I teach my students to master trading with the trend first and foremast and to make that the most important piece of their technical analysis.

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller is an American investor, hedge fund manager and philanthropist.
In 1988, he was hired by George Soros to replace Victor Niederhoffer at Quantum Fund. He and Soros famously “broke the Bank of England” when they shorted British pound sterling in 1992, reputedly making more than $1 billion in profits. They calculated that the Bank of England did not have enough foreign currency reserves with which to buy enough sterling to prop up the currency and that raising interest rates would be politically unsustainable. 
“I’ve learned many things from him [George Soros], but perhaps the most significant is that it’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”
The above quote is reference to George Soros who mentored Druckenmiller for a while. This quote fits perfectly with an article I wrote recently about how you don’t have to be right to make money trading. Most traders get far too concerned about the number of winners they have compared to losers when really, they should totally forget about that number and instead focus on their overall risk / reward. In other words, how much money are they making for every dollar they have risked.

Jim Rogers

James Beeland “Jim” Rogers, Jr. is a Singapore based business magnate of American origin. Regarded by the business world as a brilliant investor, Rogers is also an author and financial commentator. He co-founded the global investment partnership, Quantum Fund, along with George Soros, another equally brilliant businessman. 
Here’s one of my all-time favorite trading and investing quotes, courtesy of Mr. Rogers:
“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, “I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.” No, you don’t. You should sit there until you find something.”
I really like the part above where Jim Rogers says “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner…” because that really sums up what I try to teach my students as well as my own personal trading style. Rogers is dead-on with the above quotes; most traders do WAY too much…there is nothing wrong with doing nothing if there isn’t anything to do! In other words, don’t force a trade if an obvious one isn’t there, it’s better to save your capital for a solid opportunity that’s just around the corner.

Ray Dalio

Raymond Dalio is an American billionaire investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. Dalio is the founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. As of January 2018, he is one of the world’s 100 wealthiest people, according to Bloomberg. 
Here is a pretty deep quote by Ray Dalio:
“I believe that the biggest problem that humanity faces is an ego sensitivity to finding out whether one is right or wrong and identifying what one’s strengths and weaknesses are.”
This quote by Mr. Dalio is deep, for a few reasons. One, having a sensitive ego is very bad in trading, because the fact is, you’re going to have losing trades, probably more than you want. So, if you become overly-affected / emotional by every loser, it’s going to catapult you into a huge string of trading mistakes, as I wrote about more in-depth in my article on the top trading mistakes people make.
Next, being right or wrong is and should be 100% irrelevant in trading. As the late, great Mark Douglas teaches, you can be wrong on average and still make money, and your trading success or failure doesn’t depend on whether you’re right on your next trade, read my article on the secret to trading success for more on this. Finally, you must determine what your strengths and weaknesses are as a person before you can find trading success. We all drag our personal baggage into the markets and it influences our trading, for better or worse.

Warren Buffet

Known as the “Oracle of Omaha,” Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors of all time. He runs Berkshire Hathaway, which owns more than 60 companies, including insurer Geico, battery maker Duracell and restaurant chain Dairy Queen. He has committed to giving more than 99% of his fortune to charity. So far, he has given nearly $32 billion.  
Here is perhaps a lesser-known quote from Warren but one that I like nonetheless:
“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble”
To me, this quote is saying that high-probability trade signals happen infrequently, which is something I teach as any of you know who have followed me for any length of time. Thus, when you do get a nice and obvious / confluent trade signal (there’s that confluent word again) you need to maximize your gains, not take a quick / easy profit. This fits nicely in my teachings about the power of risk reward and how to catch big moves in the market. I am all about waiting patiently, with discipline, for days, weeks or even months and then pouncing on that one super-obvious setup that will net me a large 1:3, 1:4, 1:5 or even greater winner. This is the basis behind my approach that proves you don’t need to win a lot to make money trading.

Conclusion

Personally, if you’re a beginning or struggling trader, I think the most important thing to takeaway from all the wisdom in today’s lesson is to first get YOURSELF straight; get your money straight, get your patience and discipline straight, know what your trading edge is and how to properly trade it BEFORE you start risking real money in the markets. If you do this, you will largely be trading in-line with the insight and advice that the above trading greats have provided you with.

Note:


Risk Disclaimer

All information is for educational purposes only. Nothing should be considered as a buy or sell recommendation. The risk of loss in trading stocks, commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if trading is appropriate. When trading stock, futures or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This email may is a paid advertisement. It could be for a product or service that is not offered, recommended or endorsed by Stock Alphabets and neither the company nor its affiliates bear responsibility or control over the content of the advertisement and the product or service offered. Proceed at your own risk.
The information and material contained in these pages and the terms, conditions, and descriptions that appear are subject to change without prior notice. Investments in equity shares, debentures etc, are not obligations of or guaranteed by the Stock Alphabets, and are subject to investment risks.