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Saturday 29 June 2019

4 Crazy Price Action Strategy Tips That Will Give Immediate Results!

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forex price action tips article coverDo you want to be able to open up any price chart, and forecast near term price action with confidence on your own?
Every trader aspires to be an awesome technical analyst. It’s one of the core skills needed to be able to trade the Forex market like a boss.
Price Action Trading is the methodology you will eventually fall in love with.
Let’s face it, it’s a very seductive and addictive form of analysis, and when done right – very lucrative!
At it’s core, price action is something trading systems need, and many have been derived from its principles.
Once you master the charts, you can come up with your own flavor of trading system that works for you and be proud of its results.
But first, you need to master the charts, and become your own king of technical analysis.
In this guide, I’ve got some awesome tips that will make the charts just pop out at you, instilling a huge boost in clarity in your analysis next time you open your trading software!
Are you ready? Let’s begin…

perform.
Since this is my first candlestick pattern strategy evaluation, I wanted to focus on something really really simple – the candle body.

1. Get Context  – Read The Story Of Price Action

getting context with the price actionWhat’s the number 1 issue with price action noobs?
Easy, trading candlestick patterns in isolation!
This has got to be the trap that every new trader trips over when they first open the door to trade price action, and continue to be stuck with this toxic mindset!
I really can’t stress this enough – a candlestick pattern on it’s own is a very weak signal!
Actually, I have some fun fact data to share from some recent testing.
I wrote a program to evaluate a scenario that would trade every single candlestick reversal, specifically the pin bar / rejection candle.
The program only looks exclusively for the pattern as a trade signal, that’s it!  It doesn’t care about the size of the candle, the market conditions, nothing! If the Forex price action pattern appears, it starts recording data.
Can you guess what the success rate was?
Taking ever single pin bar candlestick signal (across various pairs and time frames), averages out have about a 20% expected success rate – which in real life trading terms, is like jumping on the bankruptcy bus.
every single rejection pin bar candle taken result
Candlestick patterns are awesome to use, but they should not be the first, or only factor in your trade decision making process.
This is where I drive home the point to look beyond the candlestick patterns, and get market context BEFORE you make a trade decision.
When analyzing the price action context, some things you need to consider are:
  • Current price structure
  • What’s happening on the higher time frames
  • Forex price action to the left
  • Relative location of price to other important technical factors
  • Presence of price action reacting with support, resistance, trend line structures etc
If I could illustrate my point here, I would show two charts. The bad way, and the professional way to approach candlestick signals.
bad approach to candlestick patterns
Look at the flow chart above, is this level of decision making you take when putting your money on the line?
Now look at the chart below, this is how I recommend you approach a trade decision that involves a candlestick pattern. Give this a try…
candlestick patterns decision making process table - the right way
The success rate is much harder to achieve with a quantitative simulation, due to the discretionary (human decision) factors –  so I can’t put a % against this, but I will continue with my work here.
If you’re guilty of the first flow chart, try switch to the ‘get context’ flow chart, and watch how quickly you start filtering out bad signals.
Check out this example…
candlestick signal with no price action context
Above: Very hard to build value to a ‘sell trade’ here, based off the pin bar candlestick alone.
If you look beyond the candlestick, you can see the market is very bullish. That’s evident by the higher highs, and higher lows being printed, which is the footprint of a bullish trending market
If you want to sell against that, you need to have really strong technical evidence that a reversal is likely to occur (I’ll cover that later in the tutorial).
out of context signal fails as expected
Above: The ‘what happened after’ shot. As expected the bullish moment continued, because that’s what the market structure was screaming after. Market structure analysis through reading price action takes priority over candlestick signals (remember the flow chart above).
Any price action based signal is going to dramatically change in value depending what kind of market environment the trade setup forms in.
Lets take a look at a signal that fits within the market context…
good price action signal in context with the technicals
Above: A candlestick signal that fits well within the ‘story’ price action is communicating here.
A similar structure to the previous example. This market is making higher highs, and higher lows – a bullish market, where we should be looking to buy only.A bullish rejection candle formed here, and off a trend swing level. The trade idea is within context and has a lot of technical value.
good price action analysis wins as the signal reaches into higher highs
Above: The bullish rejection candlestick signal had good follow through, which is expected, because it was backed by many technical factors – aligning it with the market context.
Checkpoint
Start looking beyond the candlestick patterns. Take a step (or two) back, look at the market structure, and other technical factors like support and resistance (especially weekly S/R) to help build value into a buy or sell trade idea. Then see if the candlestick signal has synergy with your price action analysis.

2. Top Down Analysis is A Critical Step For Price Action Traders

top down analysis concept artYou might have heard the term ‘top down analysis’ being passed around the Forex communities from time to time. This nicely complements the ‘getting context’ tip above.
Top-down analysis is the idea of aligning what’s going on in the market from a higher time frame perspective (top), and then stacking it with your trading time frame analysis(down) – to create strong synergy with your trade idea.
This is a critical, and an overlooked step when evaluating a trade idea by many traders who are trying to learn price action trading.
To begin, start your analysis from the top time frame – I recommend using the weekly chart for your entry point.
The weekly chart offers a lot of value, big technical details that you might otherwise miss on your trading time frame. I mostly use the top time frame (weekly chart) for gathering information.
I am looking for information such as:
  • Critical support and resistance levels: Levels which have proven to act as a major turning point in the market before.
  • Dominant technical features: Major trend line structures or price squeezing structures.
  • The market structure:  Which way are we moving/trending? Where are we within a range? Is this a choppy consolidation period?
  • Previous weekly candle anatomy: Provides good insight to where price is likely to try move.
Then we move down to the trading time frame…
Because I am dominantly a swing trader, that’s anything between the “4 hour” to “Daily” charts. Occasionally I will use the 1 hour chart for an aggressive swing trade entry, but only when I can build very strong top down analysis.
When you’re on your primary trading time frame, it is business as usual – looking for details such as:
  • Market structures: trending, ranging, etc.
  • Turning points: trend lines, swing levels, support/resistance or whatever your trading system dictates is a technical feature.
  • A clear trade signal: usually a candlestick pattern, or some kind of price action event.
To illustrate why this is important, lets walk through an example where we disregard top down analysis and focus only on the trading time frame.
This example is a ‘what can happen’ if you ignore the bigger picture, so we will just check in to see what the higher time frame chart is communicating  so I can make my point…
As per usual, I begin on the weekly time frame.
top down analysis starting at weekly time frame
From the weekly time frame we gather the key information I would normally bring down to the trading time frame.
We can see price is testing a major weekly resistance level here. This is something we do not want to attempt to buy through.
It is a risky practice to try trade ‘through’ weekly turning points.
If anything, we could consider looking for sell signals off that level on our trading time frame.
Now we have the information in hand, keep it in mind. We will go to the trading time frame – in this case, the daily chart, and disregard what we’ve learned from the weekly chart.
price action buy signal occurs under weekly level
So we see a bullish candlestick signal on the daily chart.
If you were stuck in the mind-set of ‘trading a candlestick signal just because it’s there’, then you might take taken this.
This is what happened next…
the weekly time frame dominates the price action on the lower time frames
Above: A classic scenario where the higher time frame analysis overpowers the single value of a candlestick trade signal on the trading time frame.
In this case, it is bad practice to try and challenge the market by buying or selling through proven major turning points.
Without the top down analysis element here, we could have easily overlooked the major level, not even knowing the danger was there in the first place.
This is the kind of ‘tunnel vision’ a lot of faster paced, lower time frame traders suffer from.
Top down analysis is extremely important when you’re thinking about trading counter trend. I am speaking from a swing trading point of view, where you’re looking to catch a really big move.
Higher time frame analysis actually becomes paramount in a counter trend trade decision!
price testing major level on weekly chart
Above: Starting our top down analysis, we can see the price is testing a major level.
We look to the left and see this level is a proven turning point, so we can only logically anticipate one thing – a good chance of a reversal occurring.
Next step: look for signals to fit that analysis on the trading time frame.
bearish counter trend reversal signal
Above: We step down onto our trading time frame and see a bearish candlestick sell signal.
This signal fits the context of the market, and aligns with our higher time frame analysis. An authoritative counter trend signal which builds a very strong case to position against the existing market trend.
If the signal follows through with this bearish pattern, it’s like to be a very extended move, as weekly levels tend to be the starting point for complete trend reversals.
counter trend signal follows through with strong bearish price action
Above: A powerful example of counter trend trading done right.
You’ve heard the sayings over and over: ‘trade with the trend only‘, ‘the trend is your friend‘.
Well, those catch phrases are only true while the trending context is relevant.
You need to use top down analysis to make sure you’re not going to trade into any serious trouble spots, or even better – use the technique to spot lucrative counter trend signals, like the one shown above.
A lot of traders are very reluctant to move into lower time frames, due to a lot of misconceptions about trading on charts like the daily and weekly.
Let me extinguish all your fires right here: Busting myths about trading Forex price action on the daily charts.
Checkpoint
Top down analysis is the discipline of aligning technical analysis from a higher time frame, with your trading time frame. The weekly chart works best for swing trading top down analysis. It will give you a clear picture of what you should be doing in the market, help you build value into your trading signals, and help you spot the best counter trend opportunities.

3. Focus on Charts With Clear Price Action to the Left

look left analogy for technical analysisOne of the quickest ‘spot checks’ you can do on your chart is have a look to the left.
What do you see? Clear trending price action, or a highly congested traffic jam?
When the market seizes up, and the flow of price action stops – we can get these horrible, hostile, churned up periods of consolidation that create ‘minefield’ like signals.
Candlestick signals, and other trades will often form within these conditions, and may be tempting to trade – but are just too unreliable in an unstable market.
There are times you would have had an experience where a trade ‘dragged you through the mud’, because you took the position in choppy market conditions.
A simple check to the left rule can be a good reminder to move on to the next chart, or wait for the next position.
Sometimes no position is a good position – especially when you’re trade is drowning in draw down.
bad price action to the left of signals
Above: A series of bullish candlestick buy signals form in rough conditions.
We take one quick look to the left, and we see the market very cluttered and congested – just like a peak hour traffic jam.
This immediately tags the signals as very risky. The unstable price action, and no clear market structure makes these types of charts very difficult to make money with.
3 out of 4 of the signals in the example above have had their low’s broken – which means they would have highly likely been stopped out.
Trades will often float between profit and draw down for days, and give you unwanted anxiety.
I just recently experienced this myself. My trade got caught in congestion for weeks, and the swap rate (interest rate) charges started to build up quite a bit.
Lets take a look at a cleaner example.
looking left to a clear trending structure
Above: Looking to the left of a bullish price action signal, we see a nice clear trending structure.
The higher highs and higher lows give a nice clear picture to the left, which builds value into the bullish trade idea.
Remember this line:
Muddy waters are best cleared when left alone.
Simply meaning, if you see bad conditions – leave the chart alone and come back when things have cleared up.
If you want to dive deeper into this topic, check out my tutorial: Learn how to trade price action in Forex without using indicators.
Checkpoint
A simple and effective way to ‘spot check’ market conditions is to look to left. If you see a readable price structure, like a trend or range  – you’re good to go. However, if you see congested, difficult to understand price action – it’s best to leave that market alone until it becomes organized again.

4. Time Your Breakout Trading Decisions Carefully

a money trap suggesting breakout traps are there to trick youOne element to a trading decision, is the timing.
I really don’t think many traders consider this, and just pull the trigger ‘in the moment’.
Depending on what time you evaluate, or make a decision to execute on a trade order – can be a ‘make or break’ factor if the trade succeeds or not.
There are many time-based nuances in trading price action, however in this segment, I am mostly focusing on breakout decisions.
Here is my industry secret…
Breakouts that occur in the Asia session are deceptive, very risky, and continue to have a high failure rate!
I speak from my swing trading experience, but this phenomenon would definitely seep into other trading strategies also.
What usually happens is this:
  • A breakout event occurs in the Asia session
  • When London opens, the breakout event has failed – then market then explodes in the opposite direction
The fix is simple. Wait until London opens before you make any breakout decisions!
If we know it’s prone to failure, then we can actually use this fakeout as a signal itself. In my opinion, this one should be left to experienced traders – but here is some food for though.
I call this kind of price event the Asia session breakout trap.
asia session breakout
Above: A price action breakout event occurs – the current daily candle breaks below the previous day candle.
In many cases, this could be a trigger for a breakout structured trade. But look what happens when we allow it to be triggered during the Asia session…
asia session fakeout
Above: The key moment for this concept. Asia session is coming to an end, and London is about to open. The Asia breakout has faded, and is building strength going into the money sessions!
This is the point of failure. This is the reason right here why I avoid the Asia breakout triggers.
If you frequently check your charts at the London open, you will see this price action event unfold many times. The London open is one of the best times to do your technical analysis, and to make your breakout trade decisions.
asia breakout fails and acts as a buy signal
Above: The initial bearish breakout is completely wiped out, and the market actually rallied in the opposite direction for days later.
That’s why we can exploit the fakeout event, and use it as a trade signal.
My theory to why this method is so powerful…
With stops being triggered, there is now less resistance for the market to move in the opposite direction due to an influx of closing trades.
This produces a very powerful ‘aftershock effect’, where price can move great distances on the chart during that session, and beyond.
The event creates an excellent opportunity for us to catch a nice explosive trade – it’s one of my favorite breakout strategies.
If you want you can trade the Asia fakeout directly, or utilize an extension of this setup – which I call the breakout trap and reverse Forex setup.
The breakout trap and reverse system is built off more confirmation:
  • First we wait for a an Asia fakeout to occur, especially around key technical areas on the chart
  • We can enter on the ‘aftershock move’ using breakout orders (buy & sell stop orders), at the opposite end of the previous candle’s range.
breakout trap and reverse trade
Breakout trap and reverse moves can be violently explosive and give you very high return on investment. But you will need to hold onto them to milk them for what they are worth.
Next time you see an Asia breakout occur, watch the price action at the London open to see what happens.
  • Is the breakout showing sustainability, and continuing to produce a nice powerful move going into London as well?
  • Or, does it collapse and cause price to charge in the opposite direction?
Checkpoint
A lot of breakouts look like fantastic trading opportunities ‘in the moment’, but [highlight]if your timing is off – you could be entering a dangerous unfulfilled move[/highlight]. These Asia breakouts collapse and trigger an ‘aftershock’ effect that fuels intense movement in the opposite direction when the money sessions open. We can capitalize on these powerful reversal moves.

Want To Learn More Secrets?

I hope today’s Forex price action tips was a good knowledge injection for you. You should be able to go to the chart now and apply these concepts immediately.
If you really enjoyed the strategies and concepts shown in the article today and are hungry for more – then you are invited to check out all the other price action articles, lessons, and video trade tutorials on my site. I am sure you will find them just as insightful.
I recommend my big price action strategy guide.
Going beyond that, I do have a price action war room that I offer for serious traders only. Without giving a sales pitch, it consists of:
  • A very comprehensive Forex price action course
  • My ‘Chart of the day‘ and weekend video market walk through
  • My custom built MT4 software
    • Price Action Battle Station (A candlestick pattern, and breakout detector + a lot more)
    • Custom Chart Builder (Build custom time frames, custom candle open/close times, Renko & Heiken Ashi charts)
    • Trade Management Panel (Quickly open trades, auto calculates risk, OCO orders, straddle trades, trailing stops + a lot more)
  • 24 hour Private Chat Room for the War Room group (share charts, ask questions etc)
If you would like to learn more about that – check out my War Room Information Page.
Again I hope you walk away from the lesson today, feeling empowered to master Forex price action. If so, please don’t forget to leave a comment below and let me know your thoughts.
Best of luck on the charts!

Candlestick Patterns Strategy – Trading the Large Body Candlestick Pattern

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candle body articleIn today’s article, I am going to kick off my new series on Forex strategy analysis.
That’s where I take trade ideas, concepts, or strategies out there in the Forex wild, do some data mining, show some cool graphs, hunt for correlations, and try spot any statistical hot spots we can exploit for $$$.
Basically does the strategy work or not? If so, where is it working, and where is it not?
If the data demonstrates some statistical edges, we run the strategy through a trading robot back test to simulate how they would perform.
Since this is my first candlestick pattern strategy evaluation, I wanted to focus on something really really simple – the candle body.
🤔 Does the candle body thickness have predictive powers? Can it give us an edge?
Let’s dive in and do some deep, but fun analysis on the candle body’s secrets.

The Candlestick Body “Chart Pattern” Strategy Explained

Quite a few years ago, browsing a Forex forum – I came across a group of price action traders who only used the candle body to make a trading decision.
  • If a candle closed bullish: they were long
  • If a candle closed bearish: sells were opened
This kind of strategy seems really stupid simple, and probably is one of the simplest candlestick strategy ideas out there.
Trading the strategy with such simple rules would straight up, not work at all – the success would be very hit and miss depending on market volatility.
This concept is missing one thing, some quality control. The market is not going to just let you profit off the direction of the candle close in the long run.
For example; Imagine using these rules in heavy consolidation, you would be flipping trades every day with building frustration.
But, there may be some merit to the idea if we introduce some other metrics and rules.
The theory goes like this: When you see a candle with a large, thick body – you generally do see good follow-through from price in the same direction.
A picture says it all… here is an overview of the success condition we are trying to measure:
candlestick body strategy outline
Basically we want to know if a candle closes with a bullish body, what is the percentage chance we will see a higher close before a lower close.
Our stop loss for the experiment will be placed at the opposite end of the candle.
In other words, to be considered a bullish signal success, a candle must close past the ‘signal candle’ high before a candle breaks the opposite side.
Invert those rules for bearish conditions.
If a candle closes bearish, what percentage chance are we likely to see the lower close first.
Candles closing inside the ‘signal’ candle’s range are are ‘null’ event. We wait for either that explicit higher close, or lower close (past the signal candle’s range).
Lets check out how that looks in theory on the charts…
candle body bullish concept
Above: In a bull run, this idea would thrive. A nice stack of bullish bodied candles would create a burst of lucrative trading.
The same goes for bearish runs…
candle body bearishconcept
A nice bearish waterfall would bring the profits up quickly.
But these are the text-book conditions for this strategy. How often can we expect these ‘picture perfect’ scenarios to pop up, and when are we going to know they will happen? – we don’t.
We can’t rely on being carried by a huge market rally every day.
That’s why it is important to start introducing some quality control metrics to be able to filter the good from the bad!

The Size of the Candle Body

measuring candlestick sizeOne of the obvious, first measurements we can observe is how the candle body’s size effects the success / failure of the signal.
The body size should be a big deal – imagine a small doji candle vs a big thick bodied power candle. The difference between the two (I would imagine) would be quite dramatic – but you never know…
But what are we going to compare it with? We can’t measure body size against a hard set number, like body size compared to 300 pips.
The average trading range between markets changes dramatically. Gold can move 2000 points a session, making the static pip measurement a bogus reference.
But ahh… the Average Trading Range (ATR)!
We can measure the candle’s body size against the current Average Trading Range’s value.
That way we have a relative metric to measure the body size against which adjusts to market conditions.
If the market is pushing out some big candles, then the ATR will scale up and also scale down in slow conditions.
I decided to measure the candle’s body size vs the ATR as a percentage.  Let’s consider the ATR was 50 pips:
  • If the candle body measured 50 pips, then the percentage would be 100%. Because the candle body is 100% the size of the ATR
  • If the candle body measured 25 pips, that’s 50% of the ATR
  • If the candle body measured 80 pips, that’s 160% of the ATR – representing a candle body that is larger than the current volatility
Alright so lets show some graphs.
Below is a success/failed histogram which illustrates the data with clarity.
The x-axis shows how the body size Vs ATR (20 period) affects the signal performance. Here is an example…
example body experiment graph
The bottom graph is my nicely color coded ‘probabilities histogram’ showing us where the strong advantages are in the data (if they exist).
Going by this graph, it seems there is a clear edge when the body size is above 85% of the ATR. However, if we look at the success/fail histogram above, we can see there are not many trades above 130%.
So the opportunity seems to be between 85-120% of the ATR.
But I’ve also added another observation on the chart, which is the ‘profitability threshold’.
When the bars are above the threshold, the system as a chance to do make money – the further above the line, the more likely it is to make money over the long term.
It uses the average return on risk for each bin range on the x-axis to establish how each x value range (the body size of the candle vs the ATR) affects profitability.
This example chart doesn’t look healthy, with most bars falling below the profit line (you can also think about this line as a ‘break even marker’).
Wait! Don’t throw down the hammer and make conclusions just yet – this is only the GBPUSD… there are many other markets to run the data on. Not only that, this is the 6 hour time frame – what about the other time frames?
I decided to include most of the swing trading time frames:
  • 1 hour
  • 4 hour
  • 6 hour
  • 8 hour
  • 12 hour
  • Daily
I also threw in the 15 min chart to satisfy the high frequency junkies (day traders) out there. I personally hate those lower time frames, but I will let the data do the talking..
For markets to run this strategy on, I picked a handful of different markets to save time on the data mining process (I would be here forever processing every single market & time frame variant).
  • EURUSD
  • GBPUSD
  • AUDUSD
  • EURJPY
  • GBPNZD
  • AUDNZD
  • EURGBP
  • GOLD
  • Crude Oil
  • S&P
Every Forex strategy will perform differently on individual markets. A strategy could be a big winner on EURUSD, but wipe an account on GBPNZD.
This spread of market will provide a nice variety, and a good idea on how the strategy performs across our ‘test basket’ of markets for a ‘general performance’ metric – we can always test on more instruments if the results are promising.
So let’s look at some graphs …

Raw Candlestick Body Size Vs ATR Performance

To avoid bloating the article with 100’s of graphs, we can consolidate data groups together to see if any nice metrics pop out at us. If they do, we can get more granular.
As I mentioned before I included the 15 min time frame… so lets start from the bottom.
Not expecting much magic from this low time frame data to be brutally honest with you.
Below is the consolidated 15 min data of all the test symbols to highlight the candlestick pattern strategy performance across the board.
all symbols 15 min base performance
As expected a poor result.
None of the candle body sizes are able to make it over the profitability line.
One correlation visible here is that the success chance increases as the body size of the candle gets higher.
You might be thinking: “Wait I see 60-70% win rates”. That’s true, the trades are hitting the ‘success condition’ frequently, but the reward is poor vs the risk taken.
Meaning each failed trade becomes very punishing to the system.
What about the 1 hour ?
all symbols 1h base performance
Not really much going on for 1 hour either.
The 1 hour chart is not easy to trade anyway, the candles still don’t have much price action data within them.
Stepping it up a notch to the 4 – 6 hour range…
all symbols 4h - 6h base performance
Only negligible improvements.
The candle body really needs to be 135% of the ATR to be able to flirt with the break even mark.
Finally, my favorite swing trading time frames – the 8H to daily charts…
all symbols 8h - D1-base performance
Honestly I thought we would see some improvement here, however this data is really disappointing too.
The best of the worst seems to be the 4-6 hour range when the candle body is above 115% of the ATR.
For fun, lets run through a few back test results, and observe how the equity curve looks like on that data range.
Starting from the bottom, here at some 15 min time frame results…
15 min base results
Setting the minimum candle body size of 160%, as that was the only range that came close to the profitability line on the performance graphs.
As you can see the 15 min chart results would have brought tears to a grown man’s face if you let this system run on your live account.
Total trash results. The performance graphs shown earlier anticipated this.
Moving along to some 6 hour time frame figures. I am not showing every single symbol otherwise the article will be too bloated.
The min ATR was set to 115% this time, as the performance evaluation charts showed this is were the best performance started to kick in.
6 hour base performance
Sideways results as expected, as the performance charts implied this would happen.
None of the bars on the 6 hour data chart really cleared the profitability line, so break even was the best case scenario here.
Moving along to the daily – where I would usually expect cleaner results…
daily base performance
The daily results were the most stable so far, but still nothing to get excited about!
However, there was this one…
eurusd daily results with min input 115
The EURUSD daily output was a pretty damn good equity curve. Just a candle body trader with a min input of 115% makes money 😮 !
Buzzkill: 10% account gain over the 3 year trading period isn’t impressive. Even though it turned a profit – it was a very slow snail system.
So what can we take away here…?
Checkpoint
One clear correlation in the data is the larger the candle body size, the higher chance we get to a trade success condition (a higher or lower close).
Although we have high win rates, the reward output is so bad for each trade, we can’t get over that profitability threshold – causing stop outs in the system to be so destructive and therefore consuming all rewards + more.
This system is not viable with these very simple rules, even though the special case of EURUSD made a profit, it was still a very slow crawl with a few 6 month periods of no profits.

Introducing Moving Average Filters To A Candlestick Pattern Strategy

filtering the candlestick patterns strategy with a moving averageNow that we have established a ‘baseline’ for this experiment, we can try adding filters to see if they improve performance.
The moving average filter is the ‘go-to’ starter kit for a simple trend filter – attempting to scrub out bad trades, and let the good trades ‘with momentum’ bubble up as quality trade signals.
The simple rules:
  • Bullish signals that form above the moving average = pass
  • Bearish signals that form below the moving average = pass
  • Anything else is filtered out
I collected data on a nice range of exponential moving averages: 10, 20, 33, 50, 65, 100, 200.
I built a special performance comparison graph to help evaluate how effective the EMA filters are on the system.
The 20 EMA = usually a good medium term momentum filter. I also use it in my day to day trading – so I was interested to see what effect it would have here…
First run is through the 15 min data to output what performance change we would see with the 20 EMA filter added…
15min 20 ema effect on the candle body strategy
The conclusive graph here is the % Change bar chart in the top right.
This will tell us what effect the filter had on overall performance. In this case, hardly anything.
In fact, those slightly negative red bars, indicate the 20 EMA made the performance slightly worse than the baseline performance.
Let’s run the 8 hour to daily range data…
8h D1 20 ema effect on the candle body strategy
Some tiny bleeps on the radar, but overall a null effect.
This initial data is strongly suggesting the EMA filter does nothing to help the performance of this Forex candlestick strategy.
At this point, I thought it would be too boring to continue with posting individual performance graphs for every single EMA / time frame set.
To get more of a ‘birds eye view’ of how they effect performance, I designed this line graph below which has a lot more bottom line data crammed into one chart.
I only ran the 15 min data test on the GBPUSD as the re-running of the data mining for all these EMAs, for every pair is was too time consuming.
Moving average comparison 15 min
This is a measurement of 0-100 % of how much each EMA boosted, or harmed performance on each EMA period applied.
You can see very quickly there was no response from any of them!
What about on the higher time frames…?
ema comparison-8h - d1 min
Only some minimal boosts when the body size is over 150% of the ATR.
To be honest I was surprised to see such little effect out of the EMA filters.
This simple approach to trend filtering is used widely in the Forex world – so thinking forward for future tests, it will be very interesting to see if this is even a valid  filtering approach at all.
Checkpoint
Surprisingly the exponential moving average’s ‘trend filtering powers’ do nothing to help boost performance in this strategy. We’ve thrown a large range of calculations periods, scaling from short term, medium, and longer term EMAs – but they all having a null effect, some even producing negative results… what!

Candlestick Swing Highest / Lowest Filter

I usually just call this the swing filter.
Basically we want to check the candle’s high or low price to see where it fits within the surrounding candles.
We’re measuring these points to see how many candle highs our signal candle is higher than, or how many lows the signal candle is lower than.
A quick picture to demonstrate…
swing highest lowest filter explained
What I am measuring here is if the candle is sitting on a swing high, or swing low – if so, how significant is it?
A measurement of 1 means the candle is not on a swing high or low.
I also measure with these rules:
  • If the trade is bullish, measure the swing low significance
  • If the trade is bearish, measure the swing high significance
Why? Because I am trying to filter trades sitting on lower highs in a bearish market (after a bullish correction), and in a bullish market, measuring swing lows (after a bearish correction).
For swing traders, this is a valuable measurement.
Generally you would want a swing value of at least 3.
That communicates the candle has the highest high, or lowest low within the last 3 candles.
If we apply a swing filter value of 3 to this system, we get these performance responses…
swing filter 3 15m
Above is the 15 min data, and how a swing filter of 3 affects the performance.
One striking piece of data that pops out is the number of trades filtered out. The bottom right chart shows how many trades were taken without and with the filter.
So we’re suppressing a lot of trades! It seems to be worth it, look at the chart above it.
We’re getting 10-20% boosts in performance, which leads me onto the performance graphs on the left side.
Top shows the original, bottom shows the performance with the swing filter.
We can see some of the body size ranges pushing performance bars over the profitability line. Curious to see how it looks in a back test…
swing filter gbpusd 15 m comparison
Above is a comparison back test on the GBPUSD 15 min chart.
Without any filters the system tanks pretty quickly, diving the account to $0 over the last part of 2015.
When we add the swing filter, the system doesn’t make us rich – but it does get a massive survival boost, and there is no account meltdown!
A simple swing filter stopped the account diving to $0 and also managed to hold ground until the end of the test period (3 years).
In conclusion the filter is having a dramatic effect on performance, but not enough to crank it into the profitability range.
So what happens when we run it on some higher time frames..?
GBPUSD 8h swing filter comparison
Comparing with and without filter tests on the GBPUSD doesn’t show anything impressive at all.
In fact the filter seems too strong in this context, with the filtered back test only taking a total of about 30 trades over the 3 year period.
The other higher time frames displayed similar results.
Checkpoint
The Swing Filter showed massive filtering effects in the lower time frame tests, but on the higher time frames it filtered out the signals too heavily. This could be because this candle body signal system is not producing any high quality trades to begin with, so the swing filter scrubs out almost all of the signals. I believe the swing filter has a lot of potential, but not in the context of a system packing an extremely bad baseline (unfiltered), performance .

Conclusions for this Forex Candle Strategy

ralph eating moneyThis Forex candlestick pattern strategy is probably one of the most simple candlestick strategies you could think of, so my expectations were not high.
The data does show – the larger the candle body size, the more likely a higher, or lower close will follow.
Baseline back tests didn’t produce the ‘holy grail’ equity curve we dream of, but nor did we expect it too.
Throwing some filters on the system and evaluating their performance didn’t produce anything exciting either.
It was surprising to see all moving averages having zero effect on performance though!
That one back test on the EURUSD showed a nice equity curve… so there might be others in there.
I’ve included below a Forex robot for MT4 & 5 designed to trade this strategy – with the ability to customize a lot of the inputs. You might find some other markets which produce interesting results.
For my first strategy analysis, I think I will stamp this strategy ‘not practical’.
If you liked this kind of strategy analysis content, please let me know in the comments – so I know whether to continue publishing more tests!
I have a lot of ideas we can test, but there are 1000’s of strategies out there – so also in the comments below you can also let me know your thoughts on:
  • Other mechanical strategies to test
  • Trade Filter ideas
Thanks very much and look forward to reading your feedback.
Best of luck on the charts!